• What We Do
    • Wealth Counseling
    • Investment Advisory Services
  • Who We Are
    • Our Team
    • Research Roundtable
  • How We Invest
    • Our Fiduciary Pledge
    • Investment Approach
    • Questions To Consider
    • Our Transparent Approach
  • Insights and Research

Insights and Research

Home  »  Investment Philosophy • Private Investing • Simplicity   »   Do You Need to Join the Endowment Club?

Do You Need to Join the Endowment Club?

By Preston McSwain, February 12, 2020

For many years, we’ve looked at how simple, globally diversified portfolios of index funds have performed versus the top endowments.

Even though the data has consistently said that individual investors could consistently produce top quartile returns by keeping it simple, we continue to see and hear messages like the following:

To be a good fiduciary of wealth you need to “join the club” and “place 40% or more” of your assets into private investments and other types of alternative investment funds.

We think good work is being done inside top endowments and our comparisons are not meant to suggest that they change.

Endowments have different objectives, time horizons, cash flow needs, and tax profiles than individuals, and our comparisons are simply meant to offer an alternative to presentations suggesting that families “need to” invest in endowment style portfolios.

The Latest Results

First, the good news for endowment-style investment approaches.

For the first time, spanning the years 2000-2019, top quartile endowments seem to have outperformed a simple global mix of index funds over a 10-year period.

Below are the results.

The simple 60/40 global index fund portfolio illustrated below, which had outperformed 75% of all U.S. endowments 9 out of 9 times, for every single trailing 10-year period from 2000-2010 to 2008-2018, has dropped out of the top quartile for the 10-year period ending 2019 (8.8% vs. 9.1%).

60/40 Global Index Fund Only Portfolio

Relative Performance Over Multiple 10-Year Periods


Sources:  MPI Database and Stylus software, Morningstar mutual fund performance data collected by MPI, The National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO – see important disclosures and details at the bottom of this post).  Endowment returns and comparisons are for endowment June 30 fiscal year end reporting periods.

Our question after looking even closer at the data this year, however, is this:

Over this time period, has a simple 60/40 global index fund portfolio ever been an appropriate benchmark for the endowments that individuals are being encouraged to follow?

Consider This

For many years, large U.S. endowments and foundations have been reporting increased allocations to private equity and other types of investments, which have equity like risk and, hopefully, attractive equity-like returns.

As an example, below is a chart of rolling, asset weighted allocations of U.S. endowments and affiliated foundations since 2002 (as far back as the data allows), according to The National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) Endowment Study.

Endowment Allocations Over Time


Source:  NACUBO Study of Endowments

As this chart illustrates, even though some endowments report performance as compared to 60% equity and 40% bond benchmarks, it doesn’t seem to have been a good proxy for quite some time.

For the majority of the last decade, and previous to the financial crisis, 70% equities and 30% bonds might have been a better comparison.

Assumptions are key in all of this and debate could be had about how much equity like risk and return potential exists inside top quartile endowments.

NACUBO has historically lumped alternatives together in various ways, although in 2019 their Endowment Study made things a bit easier by including a category called “Other Equities.”

This category included Private Equity, Venture Capital and other Marketable Alternatives.  Even though the word “Equities” was used, we assumed that not all alternatives are equity-like (80% was allocated to equities and 20% was allocated to bonds).

What’s the best proxy over all of these time periods for families to consider?

Heated banter will continue for sure.

But, based on the trend line of equities, and taking into account the red line marked above, which indicates 60% equities, and the green line, which highlights 70% equities, a higher allocation than 60% to stocks seems appropriate.

Assuming higher allocations to equities or equity like investments have been the case over these time periods, what happens to our comparisons when we move our index only allocations to 70% in global equities?

Ten out of Ten

The following 70% global equity and 30% bond index portfolio, re-balanced only once a year on January 1st (the methodology we have used in the past) has performed at the top quartile level – ten out of ten times – for every 10-year period spanning 2000-2019.

And for those who are wondering, a 65% global equity and 35% bond index portfolio also has ranked in the top quartile for each 10-year period.

70/30 Global Index Fund Only Portfolio

Relative Performance Over Multiple 10-Year Periods


Sources:  MPI Database and Stylus software, Morningstar mutual fund performance data collected by MPI, The National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO).

This all takes us back to the title of this piece:

Do Families Need Endowment Style Portfolios?

We say no.

Either way we’ve cut it, simple mixes of index funds, re-balanced in a simple fashion, have consistently outperformed more than 75% of the endowments families are being encouraged to follow.

As we mention at the start of this post, many endowments are doing a great job on behalf of their beneficiaries.

This piece is not meant to suggest otherwise.

In addition, we aren’t proposing that all families solely invest in index funds or that all endowment-style private and alternative investments aren’t appropriate. Some are.

As long as endowment style portfolios continue to be promoted as a “need-to-do, not a nice-to-do,” however, we’ll keep citing these keys to Unconventional Success.

“Only extraordinary circumstances justify deviation from a simple strategy…”

And

“When you look at the results on an after-fee, after-tax basis, over reasonably long periods of time, there’s almost no chance that you end up beating an index fund. The odds are 100 to 1.”

– David Swensen, Chief Investment Officer, Yale Endowment


 

Related Reading:

Are Selectors Good At Selecting? – Elisabetta Basilico, Phd, CFA

Don’t Put Yourself in a Corner – Joachim Klement, CFA

Are We Baking Portfolios with Bad Ingredients? – Tommi Johnsen, PhD

The Triumph of Hope Over Experience? – Oliver Binette, CAIA

Are Alternative Funds Prudent for Taxable Investors? – Preston McSwain – Trust & Estates

The Failure of the Endowment Model? – Richard Ennis – Journal of Portfolio Management

NACUBO Endowment Rankings – The National Association of College and University Business Officers

 


Special Thank You

A big thank you goes to Brian Portnoy, Phd, CFA, for his good counsel and edits on this piece.

Additional credit goes to our investment analyst, Oliver Binette, CAIA, and members of our Research Roundtable for their important contributions and feedback.


 

Important Disclosures:

Return Data Sources: NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments and Foundations (NCSE), Morningstar and MPI Software

Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.

60/40 and 70/30 Global Index Only Portfolio (GIOP) returns are based on the historical results of actual Vanguard index funds, but represent hypothetical returns. GIOP returns could be lower if outside investment advisory fees were applied and, depending on how the funds were implemented and re-balanced, actual client returns might differ. Future returns may be higher or lower.

GIOP returns assume reinvestment of all distributions at NAV & deduction of fund expenses. 10-year returns are annualized.

This complete document is for informational purposes only and it should not be regarded as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or other instruments mentioned in it.

Preston McSwain
+ posts
  • Preston McSwain
    https://fwpwealth.com/author/preston/
    Transparency, Simplicity and Peace of Mind®
  • Preston McSwain
    https://fwpwealth.com/author/preston/
    Fiduciary Wealth Partners Reading List
  • Preston McSwain
    https://fwpwealth.com/author/preston/
    If We Had A Chief Economist We Would Have to Pay Them
  • Preston McSwain
    https://fwpwealth.com/author/preston/
    Is Trying to Pick Active Managers a Loser's Game?
SHARE
Tags:
Endowments, Index funds, Private Equity
RELATED ARTICLES
Recessions – What Should Investors Do?
The evidence may surprise you.
Trillions – Our Talk With Robin Wigglesworth About Index Funds
It seems like we have been continuing to have the same debates over and over for almost 100 years.
Should We Be Tactical?
We should be open and humble about our tactical ability to add value.
All articles

Follow us on social media

Search Our Ideas

Subscribe to Our Posts


Important disclosures

Most Popular

  • The Simple Alternative – Keeps On Winning
  • The Simple Alternative
  • Say It Ain’t So, Joe
  • Are We Baking Portfolios with Bad Ingredients?
  • Crucial Elements in Wealth Management: Simplicity and Transparency

Browse by Theme

  • Fees
  • Fiduciary Duty
  • Investment Philosophy
  • Managing The Market
  • Peace of Mind
  • Performance Measurement
  • Private Investing
  • Quarterly Letter
  • Simplicity
  • Taxes
  • Transparency
  • Uncategorized
  • Values

FWP Logo Dark

Fiduciary Wealth Partners is a 100% employee owned firm that serves clients in a transparent, fiduciary manner.

We do not have any fee sharing arrangements with managers and do not have any broker-dealer conflicts. In addition, you will never see an arbitration clause in our contracts.

Everything we do is focused on assisting trustees, institutions and families with investment consulting, management and overall asset planning strategies.

  • Disclosures
  • ADV
  • Privacy Policy
  • Form CRS

Useful Links

  • Investment Advisory Services
  • Wealth Counseling
  • Our Team
  • Research Roundtable
  • Our Values
  • Questions To Consider
  • Insights and Ideas
  • Contact Us

Contact us

Phone

(617) 602-1900

Email

info@fwpwealth.com

Address

177 Huntington Avenue
20th Floor
Boston, MA 02115

 

View larger map

© 2020 FWP. All Rights Reserved. Fiduciary Wealth Partners Is An SEC Registered Investment Adviser.