Trillions of Influence

Do investment influencers consistently add value?
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Fallible Forecasts?

With so much evidence against the use of forecasts, why do investors listen to them? Maybe the best investors don’t.
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Every Year Can Not Be Good

Conditions are often out of our control and can change rapidly. Be prepared and stay broadly diversified. Don’t reach for returns.
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The Good Lehman Brothers Story

My Good Story from the inside as Managing Director on the day that Lehman Brothers fell.
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Why We Don’t Make Forecasts

How many times did the Wall Street consensus predict a market drop? "A spectacular zero."
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The Normal

Normal is the market going up and down in a manner that can be unnerving over short-term periods.
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